I just found and fixed a problem when upgrading packages. We tried to upgrade from the current package's version_id (object_id), not the version_name ("5.0d3"), which caused upgrade scripts to not be found at all.
But you're talking fresh install, right?
In order to troubleshoot this, I've added a debug log statement to install-3. Could you please try and get this, and turn on debugging (or just manually change it to Notice), and let me know what it says?
Also get any other upgrades, just in case.
Thanks for taking the time to help track it down.