Forum OpenACS Q&A: Re: Greenpeace.org nominated for Webby-Awards

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Posted by Don Baccus on
Look at this crap on Pournelle's site:

"In the early Eighties, climate alarmists warned us of the coming Ice Age, but it was hard for them to make a plausible case that socialism could prevent it happening, or that Big Brother could help us much when our homes and businesses were buried under a mile of ice. The very same people then switched to claims of global warming, which let them argue that the world was doomed unless individual liberty were curtailed and capitalist societies were subjected to draconian penalties."

We'll start with a simple, factual area.

A handful of scientists argued that we may be entering a new Ice Age a couple of decades ago.  This hypothesis *never* gained any traction within the professional community of climatologists.

The scientists who proposed that increases in CO2 and other so-called greenhouse gasses might lead to global warming weren't "the same people".  Initially their hypothesis was greeted with the same lack of enthusiasm as had greeted the pronouncements of the Ice Age folks.  But then more and more researchers got involved.  And slowly the idea gained credibility.  Not because of political beliefs but as a result of scientific research.  Unlike *real* junk science like, say, cold fusion in mason jars blessed by Mormon elders.

Global warming is an observed fact.  Just ask John Christy, who not many years ago said it was not.  After asking him, tell him that the fact that he's swung 'round to agreing with the consensus opinion of the professional community of climatologists makes him a socialist who is working to curtail capitalist societies.

And listen to this man, who is not only a NASA researcher but a politically conservative fundamentalist Southern Baptist, laugh in your face.

Good grief.  The crap people read in an effort to educate themselves.  You think Pounelle's more credible than the National Academy of Science?  You really think that?

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Posted by Patrick Giagnocavo on
One basis  for the prediction of global warming are the mathematical models run on the various supercomputers, such as the Earth Simulator in Japan.

However, none of the computer models, even the ones run on the biggest and fastest machines, are accurate.  Period.  This is not a fact (and it is a fact) that is mentioned.

Why are they not accurate?

Because they are not able to accurately model the effect that temperature changes have on the oceans of the world, which just happen to cover 75% of the earth's surface. No one, not the folks at Woods Hole, at NASA, etc. understands "how the ocean works" well enough to model its behavior.

Global warming has been a farce since the mid-80s at least.

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Posted by Andrei Popov on
BTW, have you read "Fallen Angels" by by Michael F Flynn, Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle?  I know it is Pournelle again -- but one has a right to doubt, does not one?  And (while possibly very absurd) some of the conclusion are quite sad (yet very environmentally friendly).

Pournelle may not be more credible than NAS, but it does not make NAS an ultimate truth, does it?  I have trouble buying extremist statments coming from both sides -- environmental and industrial all the same.

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Posted by Talli Somekh on
Andrei, the NAS is *not* extremist.

here is a short note about what it's history:

The National Academy of Sciences was born in the travail of the Civil War. The Act of Incorporation, signed by President Lincoln on March 3, 1863, established service to the nation as its dominant purpose. The act also named 50 charter members.

Over the years, the National Academy of Sciences has broadened its services to the government. During World War I it became apparent that the limited membership -- then numbering only about 150 -- could not keep up with the volume of requests for advice regarding military preparedness. In 1916 the Academy established the National Research Council at the request of President Wilson to recruit specialists from the larger scientific and technological communities to participate in that work.

Recognizing the value of scientific advice to the nation in times of peace as well as war, Wilson issued an executive order at the close of World War I asking the Academy of perpetuate the National Research Council. Subsequent executive orders, by President Eisenhower in 1956 and President Bush in 1993, have affirmed the importance of the National Research Council and further broadened its charter.

Under the authority of its charter, the National Academy of Sciences established the National Academy of Engineering in 1964 and the Institute of Medicine in 1970. Much like the National Academy of Sciences, each of these organizations consists of members elected by peers in recognition of distinguished achievement in their respective fields. The National Academy of Sciences includes about 1,800 members, the National Academy of Engineering about 1,900, and the Institute of Medicine about 1,200. All three organizations also elect foreign associates.

so, no, maybe it's not the *ultimate* truth... but sure ain't radical or extremist.

talli

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Posted by Andrei Popov on
Tali,

<blockquote>  Andrei, the NAS is *not* extremist.
</blockquote>

I am not saying it is.  'Extremist' referred more to the gloom/doom scenarios, sort of like what (ehm, here goes a non-Republican) Al Gore would portray.

I can't call myself a big expert on much of what was so vigorously disscussed in this thread, I just tend to be relatively more agnostic...

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Posted by Talli Somekh on
Al Gore? Extremist?

Lord, you're even farther off than i thought.

It's healthy to be skeptical, certainly. But according to those in the know, this stuff is pretty gloomy/doomy...

talli