When I described Java ACS 4.0 as a "dead end" I meant it strictly as Malte suggested, i.e. the datamodel and everything else under the sun will change to the extent that modules will be rewritten again to fit.
I think it's clear that our first priority will be to put together a Tcl 4.0 port.
When or if (most likely when) an OpenACS Java version comes out, odds are it will make the most sense to just do ACS 5. We'll see how their development schedule unfolds.
I don't consider OpenACS Tcl 4 version a dead end in the same sense because, ironically enough, there will be no Tcl ACS 5 from aD. Yet I think there will be plenty of interest in it, still. So I think it may well continue on with a life of its own.
However, it will be a dead end from aD's point of view, someday. Java is clearly the future path. But the Tcl stuff will be around for a long time. aD's not going to attempt to switch all their client sites to Java, for instance. That would be insane!