Not totally sure what to make of it all, but I tried Tom's suggestion and it went up fine, but I had trouble bringing it down. I had to diddle with restart-aolserver to actually kill the nsd. Anyway, I took a peek inside the supervise directory, and thought maybe that got corrupted somehow. So I unlinked it from /service, killed all the nsds, and removed the supervise dir, re-linked it, and everything seems peachy. Here's the before and after of the supervise dir:
total 8
-rw-r----- 1 nsadmin nsadmin 3 Jan 23 10:48 control
-rw-r----- 1 nsadmin nsadmin 0 Jan 21 16:36 lock
prw------- 1 root root 0 Jan 21 16:39 ok
-rw-r--r-- 1 root root 18 Jan 23 10:46 status
became:
total 4
prw------- 1 root root 0 Jan 23 10:50 control
-rw------- 1 root root 0 Jan 23 10:49 lock
prw------- 1 root root 0 Jan 23 10:49 ok
-rw-r--r-- 1 root root 18 Jan 23 10:50 status
Notice the missing p on the "before" control file, as well as the fact that it's owned by nsadmin rather than root. I don't think the chown I did should have affected anything, but somehow the named pipe got turned into a file. Anyone more familiar with the workings of daemontools able to offer any insight?