The figures you cite, Adam, are pretty consistent with the 1/3 - 2/3 ratio I have observed:
- 1,400 downloads of OpenACS 3.2.5 and 2,700 ACS (based on your bboard figures)
- 10,500 OpenACS historical downloads and 21,000 ACS historical downloads (excluding Java)
Clearly the trend in Tcl downloads should favor OpenACS in the future, while those seeking a Java product would turn to ArsDigita. Without a crystal ball it is hard to tell what the affiliation will mean in the future if they are two entirely different platforms (Tcl and Java).